The science
The JUMP is based on recent independent research The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5oC World, and indeed some of its authors (as private individuals) are amongst those who started the JUMP. Its aim is to determine where and how global emissions must reduce to ensure global warming is kept to international agreed safe levels of 1.5oC.
WHO’S BEHIND IT: The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5oC World was a year long research project undertaken as a collaboration by three world leading institutions. From academia; world renowned University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment. From the third sector; C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group representing almost 100 of the worlds biggest cities. From the private sector; global engineering consultancy, Arup.
IMPORTANT NOTE: While this research forms the basis for the six shifts, the JUMP itself has been developed entirely independently of these three organisations, with no formal input, oversight or funding from any of them (but plenty of goodwill!).
HOW DID THEY DO IT: Global trade flow data was used by a sophisticated computer model to determine the GHG impact of all goods produced, transported and consumed around the world.
Projections were then made about future consumption growth and policy changes, then how this compares to the reductions needed to stay within 1.5oC carbon budgets.
This defines the necessary emissions reductions needed between now and 2030 and 2050. The analysis then explores key areas and sectors where leaders, businesses, and citizens can take rapid action to deliver these emissions reductions. This was done for different regions around the world.
FINDINGS: The findings are staggering. They say that:
Huge and immediate reduction needed by the comfortably off: In the next decade we need a 2/3 reduction in the impact of consumption in wealthy parts of the world. This will require a complete rethink in how our economies and lives work. At the same time rapidly developing economies must adopt sustainable consumption patterns as they continue to grow.
Individuals and communities are not powerless: There is significant potential for citizens and communities to cut consumption-based emissions in all these sectors with the exception of buildings (where individuals have little power and most action is up to governments’ and business’ to lead). Food most important (after buildings)
Government and business still have the largest role: Decarbonising electricity grids and the world’s supply chains remains hugely important.
New model for living and working needed: It is clear that some of the places in the world we currently think are most sustainable, particularly in the northern hemisphere, are in fact extremely high impact when we include the impact of their consumption. It is clear there isn’t a place that has cracked the model for the 21st century, where people are living now how they will need to in future. It is also true even with all the strong action outlined in this report, there will still be further savings needed, which will need to come from deeper changes to the system.
Failure to act is not an option: If we do nothing on climate (as is currently broadly the case globally), 1.6bn people will be exposed to extreme heat by 2050 and 2.5bn severe food insecurity.
USED IN TAKE THE JUMP: based on the research, the following propositions serve as the founding evidence for the design of Take the JUMP:
Government and business maintain the biggest responsibility, and we should not dilute this fact, and instead continue to provide clarity on the changes needed such as green energy.
To ensure a 1.5 degree future there are 6 shifts that individuals and communities must make, these are the backbone of the JUMP
Five shifts taken directly from the conclusions as areas where individuals and communities can act.
The SYSTEM CHANGE shift is recognises the evidence in the report that huge changes are also needed to the wider system. And although these are not a direct part of individual action, individuals can still do things here and there to change them.
There is not clear example anywhere of what the future needs to look like and so we need to figure it out ourselves. But truth be told some of the places we look to for inspiration today actually are extremely high impact when considering their whole impact.
Need staggering pace of action now, and so we have taken the more ambitious of the two targets set out in the research for how far to go (all the numbers quoted in the Shifts are the “ambitious” rather than “progressive” targets
The focus is on comfortably off individuals and households, not everyone and not everywhere. The target levels are actually set as convergence points and for many this is an increase. We must be clear that given there is inequality in consumption and wealth, there is inequality in responsibility.
